What will elections, as they expand into the digital democracy space, look like in 2025?

How can the growing digital space strengthen elections as a key point in the democratic process? What part can growth in the digital sphere play in empowering citizens to resist autocracy? How do these trends present new opportunities and risks for the FCDO and how can we respond to them?

Understanding how technology might change the landscape in which FCDO operates plays an important role in making sure the FCDO is prepared for these changes. Over two months, we worked with the FCDO’s Technology and Innovation Unit to explore these questions. This learning journey has been developed to share the insights we uncovered with you, so that you can prepare for changing landscapes across the world. You can read more about our process in this article about our first exploration cycle.

Begin your learning journey by listening to the Future Of Elections podcast episode

And continue exploring the Future of Elections below

Four key terms to understand before you continue

  • Digital Authoritarianism

    The use of digital technologies by leaders with authoritarian tendencies to surveil, repress, and manipulation domestic and foreign populations in order to decrease trust in public institutions, increase social and political control, and/or undermine civil liberties.

  • Dual-use technologies

    Technologies which are normally used for peaceful, civilian purposes but which may have military applications. These include AI and tools for surveillance.

  • Low-tech tactics

    Tactics which make use of less sophisticated (but more accessible) technologies. These tactics include social media harassment and online disinformation.

  • Mis/disinformation

    Misinformation can be innocently spread by anyone without malicious intent while DISinformation refers to deliberately misleading or biased information which aims to manipulate narrative or facts.

Six trends which signal what the Future of Elections could look like

📺 Tools are being used for surveillance and for predicting voting trends, while AI can be used to spread disinformation through deepfakes.
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🗳 Data privacy has become a new battleground as evidenced by the 2017 Kenya elections and the 2018 Brazil elections, where data-driven campaigns are manipulating voter outcomes.
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🙅🏽 Internet shutdowns are being used to simply stop the flow of information around elections: there were 155 shutdowns in 29 countries in 2021, up from 75 in 2016.
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🌍 Cybersecurity has threatened the democratic process by opening the door to domestic and foreign interference.
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👩🏽‍💻 Big tech companies and social media platforms have an increasing influence, both positive and negative, on election processes. They are a key tool in campaigning, impacted by rising online influencers and search engine algorithms.
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🇨🇳 Information and surveillance tools are being exported for either commercial or political benefit. At least 24 governments, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, use Chinese surveillance technologies.
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If you’d like to keep exploring, read, watch and listen below 👇

  • Shaping Democracy in the Digital Age | a report from New Public Sphere
    Long read

    Social Media Misinformation and the 2022 Philippine Elections | Center for Strategic & International Studies
    Short read

    Technology for Fair Elections in Nigeria | The MacArthur Foundation
    Short read

  • The Rise of Digital Authoritarianism | Center for Strategic and Int. Studies
    2 minute watch

    Agents of Chaos     | How Russian bots interfered with a US election
    HBO documentary

    The Great Hack | The Cambridge Analytica and Facebook data scandal
    Netflix documentary

  • Digital Economy: Digital democracy | the Economist
    One episode

    Digital Democracy is Within Reach | TED
    One episode

    Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics | Nanjala Nyabola
    One episode

 

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